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XC Zone Notes - The week before NXN At-Large SelectionsPublished by
XC Zone Notes - The week before NXN At-Large Selections
By Michael Newman
Twas the week of Thanksgiving And all through the land, At-large teams were thinking Would they have one more race in Portland;
Their season’s meet resumes were handled with care, It’s up to the committee To choose the club teams to go there.
The top two teams in the five regional meets that have taken place so far know that they will be on the line in Portland on December 7. Three more regional meets along with the California State Meet will decide eight more Boys and Girls teams to make the trip to the Nike Cross Nationals. The teams that finished third and fourth in those races don’t have that luxury. Their fate will be decided by the NXN At-Large Selection Committee as they will wait by their phones hoping for a call of congratulations. We went through the same thing a year ago when Downers Grove South IL thought they would be a lock to be added to the Girls NXN teams. They never received that call. So, as you read my thoughts of who should have the best chances to be chosen, it is up to that group that make the final call. The NXN Selection was looking at three things in the teams that they were selecting to race in the meet: 1 – The committee wanted to select the hottest teams to race in Portland. 2 – The committee was looking at teams that had defeated NXN Regional champions during the year. 3 – The committee was looking at teams and how they had raced against other NXN Teams (1st or 2nd place) I wrote about this last year. You can read that piece here >> Newms Notes: December 10, 2018 You can be told your team is a lock to make it. You just have to hope that the representative in your region gives your team a strong argument. Here is the breakdown of the Boys and Girls teams that are eligible to be chosen for the Nike Cross Nationals on November 30.
BOYS
There are two teams that I feel that are locks to make it to Portland. The first team is Dakota Ridge CO who finished third last Saturday in the NXR Southwest Regional. The Eagles did not run out of state during the season. They did finish second to NXN Qualifier Mountain Vista CO by one point at the Pat Patten Invitational on September 28. Dakota Ridge was dominant in their state series winning their region meet 34 to 75 ahead of Mountain Vista with the margin even bigger in winning the Class 5A State Meet with 67 points compared to the 121 points of Mountain Vista. The Eagles finished 42 points behind Mountain Vista in the NXR race. Their performances in the two prior races put them on the starting line in Portland. The second team that should be a lock is St. Charles East IL. The Saints were unbeatable during the regular season culminating with the Class 3A State Championship. They did not have their best race the following week at the NXR Midwest Regional finishing third behind Wheaton-Warrenville South IL and York IL. They were the two teams that finished behind East at state. Like Dakota Ridge, St. Charles East did not run any out of state races this season. You do have to consider the fact that Illinois Boys’ teams have been ranked among the top 15 teams most of the season. St. Charles East and Wheaton-Warrenville South are in the same conference (DuKane Conference) and faced each other three times with the Saints winning all three including a 32 to 34 win in their conference meet and 64 to 68 at the state meet. It was one of the fastest team races in the 50 years at Detweiller Park with St. Charles East running a third all time best of 73:27. They defeated York twice during the regular season. The Saints finished 26 points behind the Dukes in the NXR Region race. Five quality wins over NXN team qualifiers should get this Illinois state champion as one of the four teams. It gets foggy after these two teams. Portland Franklin OR should be strongly considered. They came strong at the end of the season after finishing second behind Portland Jesuit OR at the Ash Creek Invitational on September 7 and second behind Tahoma WA at the Portland XC Invitational on September 28 (116 to 126). Franklin won the Oregon Class 6A State title 62 to 101 over Jesuit. The following week at NXR Northwest, they finished 41 points behind Jesuit in third. The question will be is that state win strong enough for them to make the short trip to Glendoveer Golf Course. El Paso Eastwood TX won the South Regional title in 2018. It could be tough for them to make it back to Portland as they finished third last Saturday in the regional race. They did travel to two out of state meets finishing sixth at the Woodbridge XC Classic on September 21 and seventh the following week at the Desert Twilight Meet the following week. They did not finish ahead of any NXN team qualifiers in both races. The Troopers had the best team time in winning the Texas 5A State Champions. Eastwood finished third behind Texas 6A teams Southlake Carroll TX and The Woodlands TX in the regional race. They did not finish ahead of those two teams in any meets this season. Fort Wayne Concordia Lutheran IN finished fourth at the NXR Midwest Regional behind the three powerhouse teams from Illinois. They went undefeated during the regular season including winning the Indiana State Championship. Not having that quality win against an NXN team qualifier hurts their cause. We then head to California and the three regional meets. Great Oak CA and Newbury Park CA have been the top two national teams most of the season and should win their respective divisions on Saturday. Dana Hills CA needs a close finish to Newbury Park in the D2 State race to lock up an at-large bid. If it is Redlands East Valley CA, Claremont CA, Dublin CA, or any other team, the committee may need to deliberate if a third California team needs to go in. The New York region is led by Fayetteville-Manlius NY. The state has not been strong enough for a third team to get in. Burnt Hills-Ballston Lake NY or Guilderland NY would be some of the teams that will challenge for the second auto qualifier spot. Christian Brothers Academy NJ and LaSalle Academy RI should be the teams to watch in the Northeast Regional. If Christian Brothers falls to third in this meet, keep an eye how close the finish is between second and third-places. If the form chart stays the same, then only two teams get out of this region race. Loudoun Valley VA is a solid choice to win in the Southeast Regional. Severna Park MD and Huntsville AL are the two teams to watch going for the second spot. It is hard to see a third team coming out of Charlotte.
GIRLS
This is going to be a nightmare to chose four teams from the teams that are eligible along with the other teams that will be racing on Saturday. There will be a lot of fans that will complain that their team should be on the starting line in Portland. In other words, there might be seven to eight teams that could make it to Portland in any other year. The problem is that the 2019 teams are not any ordinary teams. The Northwest and Southwest regional teams could both argue that they should get two of the at-large spots. The two Portland schools, Jesuit and Lincoln, are deserving of running at Glendoveer Golf Course on December 7. After strong performances in the past three weeks, both are among the top 10 schools on the XC Zone National List. Jesuit OR has run strong winning easily at the Nike Twilight Invitational and then at the Nike Hole in the Wall Invitational where they finished just one point ahead of Lincoln OR (86 to 87). That margin was close between the two schools in the Class 6A State Meet. Jesuit finished second behind defending NXN champion Summit OR 41 to 80. Lincoln was only five points behind Jesuit. The following week in the NXR Northwest Regional, Jesuit had to settle for third behind Summit (59 points) and North Central WA (95 points). Jesuit was only 10 points behind second (105 points). Lincoln finished fourth (128 points). Boise ID, who was among the top 20 teams nationally heading into this meet, finished fifth with 209 points. That is how tough this region is. Lincoln OR did have one quality “win” when they finished second behind SW Regional champion Lone Peak UT at the Bob Firman Invitational. Lincoln finished ahead of NXN team qualifier North Central WA who was without their #1 runner Allie Janke in that race. The fact of the quality of races that Lincoln ran down the stretch I believe should put them in. Jesuit is a close lock to make it to NXN. The question will be if the committee takes two teams from the Northwest Regional? The Southwest Regional provided the biggest surprise so far out of the five regionals that have taken place. Lone Peak UT was expected to be in one of the top two teams in this region and they did with 95 points and the regional championship. Valor Christian CO second? The addition of Lanie Szuch and Isabella Prosceno into their top seven for this race was the plus for this team that finished sixth in the Class 5A State Meet almost a month before. The two runners could not run on the varsity teams after transferring into Valor Christian. Szuch was the team’s top runner finishing 7th overall. Niwot CO, who was ranked fifth nationally entering the regional race, should be one of the at-large teams to make it to Portland. They were an at-large team last year that finished fifth in the NXN championship race. They won the high-powered Desert Twilight Classic in Arizona and defeated a good Battle Mountain CO team twice including their win in the Colorado 4A State Championship. Battle Mountain, who qualified for NXN last year, finished sixth in the Southwest Regional in a good field. The Cougars finished 11 points behind Valor Christian last Saturday. Their strength of schedule along with good state and regional races should get them in. Cherry Creek CO will be a team that committee will need to debate about. The Bruins had the huge quality win at the Roy Griak Invitational ahead of NXN Regional Champions Naperville North IL and Edina MN. What could hurt this team was their finishes down the stretch. Cherry Creek won the 5A Region 1 meet by 11 points ahead of Arapahoe CO. In the 5A State Meet, Arapahoe turned the tables winning the state team championship 30 points ahead of Cherry Creek. Arapahoe did not compete as a team in the NXR Southwest Regional. The fourth-place finish by Cherry Creek last Saturday 41 points behind Niwot should be concerning for this team. Even though after their strong performance in Minnesota it should put them in the talk, the way they finish coming down the stretch could hurt this team. It comes down to the committee on this one. Wayzata MN usually has the luxury of making it to NXN finishing in the top two auto-qualifying spots in the Heartland Regional. Now they have to wait to see if they are one of the four teams making it in. This team has come on strong running their best race in the regional race. The Trojans did finish fifth at the Roy Griak Invitational with no finishes ahead of NXN teams. They raced Edina MN four times in the final month of the season with Edina ahead of them in all four races. They were 54 points behind Edina at state and 58 points behind in the regional race with being 24 points behind second-place Muskego WI. They could be one of the four teams in, but politics could come into play when seeing if Wayzata makes it back to Portland. The Midwest teams usually make it in, but Yorkville IL and Hinsdale Central IL might not make it into the first four at-large. Yorkville has come on strong after a series of injuries had them starting out slow during the first month of the season. Their last two races, second in the Illinois Class 3A meet, and third two weeks ago at the NXR Midwest Regional, has showed their top seven is running their best at the right time. Their qualifying for the last two NXN meets is something that will also need to be considered. We then head to California and the three regional meets. Great Oak CA and Buchanan CA are the two teams to watch for in the California D1 State Meet. Newbury Park CA will be the big favorite in D2 with Claremont CA peaking at the right time. I think we see three teams coming out of California. Which three will it be? The New York regional has Fayetteville-Manlius NY and Saratoga Springs NY that should be the two qualifying teams. Keep an eye on North Rockland NY who finished third behind those two teams in the New York Class A State Meet two weeks ago. If they can pull closer to Fayetteville-Manlius and Saratoga Springs, then the committee will have another team to consider. North Hunterdon NJ and Ridgewood NJ will be the favorites to advance out of the Northeast Regional with not a good chance of a third team advancing. The same holds true in the Southeast Regional with Loudoun Valley VA and Pine Crest FL the top two teams to watch for. I would never count out Blacksburg VA who could be one of the top two teams. They finished 23 points behind Loudoun Valley in the Virginia Class 4A State Meet. There have been three teams that have come out of the Southeast Regional in the past. The strong group of at-large teams in the pool could hurt this region’s chances.
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